MLS Draft: A Real Crapshoot

The MLS Draft is coming up next week.  Real Salt Lake holds three picks in the draft, picking last in the first, second and fourth rounds (Note: some sources have indicated RSL has a 3rd, but not a 4th, but this contradicts the info from Garth Lagerwey).  What can they expect?  The answer is probably not alot.

I pulled out some of the noteworthy picks through the last decade (avoiding the temptation to list all of the flops).  In many cases these are the better players that have shown their worth in MLS, on the US international team and playing abroad.  I have left off some equally deserving players in some cases in the the interest of brevity.

So what does it show?  Well to be honest the jury is still out on 2008 & 2009.  Generally speaking, however, there are between 3-5 above average players that come through the draft annually.  That’s it.  A few other decent players sprinkled in that aren’t listed, and you hardly have the talent to field a viable team from each years selections in the draft.

2009
Steve Zakuani (1)
Sam Cronin (2)
AJ DeLaGarza (19)

2008
Brek Shea (2)
Tony Beltran (3)
Geoff Cameron (42)

2007
Maurice Edu (1)
Bakary Soumare (2)
Robbie Findley (16)
Omar Cummings (31)

2006

Marvell Wynne (1)
Yura Movsisyan (4)
Sacha Kljestan (5)
Josy Altidore (17)
Jonathon Bornstein (37)

2005
Brad Guzan (2)
Chris Rolfe (29)
Gonzo Segares (35)

2004
Freddy Adu (1)
Chad Marshall (2)
Joseph Ngwenya (3)
Clarence Goodson (7)
Clint Dempsey (8)
Matt Pickens (19)
Zach Wells (20)
Jeremiah White (23)
Michael Bradley (36)

2003
Ricardo Clark (2)
Pat Noonan (9)
Arturo Alvarez (13)

2002
Taylor Twellman (2)
Brad Davis (3)
Shalrie Joseph (14)
Alejandro Moreno (27)

2001
Brian Ching (16)
Eddie Johnson (19)

2000

Nick Garcia (2)
Carlos Bocanegra (4)
Danny Califf (6)
Bobby Convey (12)
Nick Rimando (35)


With Real Salt Lake holding picks #16 and #32 for their first two picks, I thought I would focus on those two selections to see what those picks would normally yield (see charts below).

There is some good news.  Pick #16 has brought Brian Ching and Robbie Findley into the league.  As would be expected, over the last 12 years Pick #32 has not led to any players yielding significant dividends. So while there is hope, it’s very slim.  Hopefully RSL can find this years Geoff Cameron, or Omar Cummings – but don’t count on it.

Generally speaking, there have been very few picks below #15 that have produced significant dividends.  Some would argue that there are too few worthwhile picks ABOVE #15 to make the draft meaningful.

As an RSL fan – put all your stock in the open transfer market, but hope for a minor miracle from the draft.

History of Pick #16

Year Rd Pick Team Player Previous Team
2009 2 16 Seattle Sounders Evan Brown Wake Forest University
2008 2 16 New York Red Bull Eric Brunner Ohio State University
2007 2 16 Los Angeles Galaxy Robbie Findley Oregon State University
2006 2 16 Kansas City Wizards Lance Watson University of New Mexico
2005 2 16 Kansas City Wizards Ryan Pore University of Tulsa
2004 2 16 Colorado Rapids Adrian Cann University of Louisville
2003 2 16 Los Angeles Galaxy Scot Thompson UCLA
2002 2 16 Colorado Rapids Danny Jackson University of North Carolina
2001 2 16 Los Angeles Galaxy Brian Ching Spokane Shadow
2000 2 16 San Jose Earthquakes Justin Evans Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1999 2 16 New York MetroStars Kevin Knight James Madison University
1998 2 16 New York MetroStars Billy Walsh Rutgers University
1997 2 16 Dallas Burn Alan Branigan Rutgers University
1996 2 16 New England Revolution Imad Baba Clemson University

History of Pick #32

Year Rd Pick Team Player Previous Team
2009 3 32 Seattle Sounders Jared Karkas Azusa Pacific
2008 3 32 New York Red Bull Luke Sassano UC Berkeley
2007 3 32 D.C. United Jay Needham Southern Methodist University
2006 3 32 Houston Dynamo Andre Schmid St. John’s University
2005 3 32 San Jose Earthquakes C.J. Klass University of Washington
2004 4 32 Columbus Crew Jamal Sutton Missouri State University
2003 4 32 New York MetroStars Kenny Arena University of Virginia
2002 3 32 Kansas City Wizards O’neil Peart Long Island Rough Riders
2001 3 32 Colorado Rapids Ryan Lee UCLA
2000 3 32 Chicago Fire Yuri Lavrinenko Indiana University
1999 3 32 Colorado Rapids Bobby Meyer Dartmouth College
1998 3 32 Kansas City Wizards Mario Sanchez Fresno State University